by Tom Siegel

Much of the clamor surrounding Alphabet's recent demo of its Bard AI model focused around the fact that the system generated a factual mistake. In a classic overreaction, critics had a field day, social media went into overdrive, and investors dumped large numbers of shares.

All of this resulted in a billion dollar Alphabet market share decline in a single day, in large part due to fears that the Open AI/Microsoft duo are poised to take the AI search model trophy away from Google.

The fact is that Open AI’s ChatGPT produces many obvious factual errors, as well.

Give credit where credit is due; both of these amazing AI models are in a nascent stage of development. Still, all information garnered from forthcoming demos, betas, and releases should be considered suspect for the time being.

For example, the following is the text of my conversation with ChatGPT shortly after Alphabet’s Bard demo ignited a somewhat misguided media frenzy surrounding the world’s leading search company:

what are the odds of rolling double sixes five times in a row using two dice

The odds of rolling double sixes five times in a row using two dice are approximately 1 in 7,776, or 0.013%.

Each time you roll two dice, there is a 1/36 chance of rolling double sixes. So, to calculate the odds of rolling double sixes five times in a row, we need to multiply the odds of rolling double sixes once (1/36) by itself five times:

So, the odds of rolling double sixes five times in a row using two dice are approximately 1 in 7,776, or 0.013%.

what is 36 to the 5th power

36 to the 5th power is 60,466,176.

To calculate 36 to the 5th power, we simply need to multiply 36 by itself five times:

what is 1/60466176 expressed as a percentage

1/60466176 expressed as a percentage is approximately 0.000000165% or 0.000165%.

To convert a fraction to a percentage, we need to multiply the fraction by 100. So, to convert 1/60466176 to a percentage, we can do the following calculation:

So, 1/60466176 expressed as a percentage is approximately 0.000000165% or 0.000165%.

so then how can the odds of rolling double sixes five times in a row with two dice be 1 in 7776 or 0.013% as you stated before

I apologize for the mistake in my previous answer. You are correct, the odds of rolling double sixes five times in a row with two dice are not 1 in 7,776 or 0.013%.

The correct odds of rolling double sixes five times in a row with two dice are 1 in 729, or approximately 0.137%. This can be calculated by taking the odds of rolling double sixes once (1/36) and raising it to the power of 5:

And then converting this fraction to a percentage by multiplying it by 100:

So, the odds of rolling double sixes five times in a row with two dice are approximately 1 in 729, or 0.137%.

Again, I apologize for any confusion caused by the previous mistake in my answer.

your answer is still incorrect. in fact it is even more incorrect than your first answer

I apologize for the mistake. The correct answer is that the odds of rolling double sixes five times in a row with two dice are 1 in 729, or approximately 0.137%. This can be calculated as follows:

So, the odds of rolling double sixes five times in a row with two dice are 1 in 729, or approximately 0.137%. Thank you for pointing out the error. I appreciate your help in making sure that I provide accurate information.

but the odds of rolling a double six with two dice are 1/36, not 1/6. you are giving me the results for rolling five sixes in a row

I apologize for the mistake. You are correct, the odds of rolling double sixes with two dice are 1/36, not 1/6. The odds of rolling double sixes five times in a row would then be (1/36)^5 = 1/60466176.

So, the odds of rolling double sixes five times in a row with two dice are 1 in 604,661,76, or approximately 0.000000165%, or 0.000165%. Thank you for bringing this to my attention, and I apologize for any confusion caused by the previous errors in my answers.

ok, that makes more sense

I'm glad I could provide a more accurate answer for you. If you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to ask. I'm here to help!